Week 17 was a solid one for my predictions and it also solidified a great improvement over my 2013 efforts. In straight up picks, I had a ten win leap from 2013 to 2014 and an eight win jump against the spread. But enough about the regular season, now it’s time for some postseason football.
Unlike the other pro sports, football is the only one with the “win or go home” element. This is what makes it so compelling as a team who is a heavy favorite could have one bad game that ends their season. That is something that happens almost every year, so it will be interesting to see what team fits that criteria this season.
Week 17 results:
Last week: 11-5, Season: 169-87
Last week against the spread: 8-8, Season: 127-129
Cardinals 16 Panthers (-4.5) 21: This very well could go down as the least watched playoff game in history. The Cardinals come into the playoffs limping down to their third quarterback in Ryan Lindley after a fantastic start to the season. They now go on the road to face a Panthers team who despite their record, has been hot of late. Despite limited weapons and various injuries, Cam Newton has been doing a good job of keeping his turnovers down recently.
In his past four appearances, Newton has a combined six touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. If he and the Panthers continue to protect the ball, they should be able to advance on to the divisional round.
Ravens 20 Steelers (-3.5) 26: Either of these teams has the pedigree and personnel to be a scary team to face as the postseason goes on. For that reason, this divisional rivalry should be as exciting as ever. This was a tough one to pick, but at the end of the day I feel the Steelers will be able to pick on the Ravens injured secondary.
With LeVeon Bell’s status up in the air, the Steelers should rely on Ben Roethlisberger more than usual in this one. Regardless of the matchup, Antonio Brown is a whole lot to handle and has established himself as one of the league’s best wideouts. While Brown is going to get his, the x-factor in the Steelers passing attack is Martavis Bryant. The rookie proved to be a boost to the passing attack as he has the ability to beat defenders deep and in the redzone. All it takes is one big play to change a game and Bryant has the ability to do it.
Despite all that, don’t go into this one underestimating the Ravens. Joe Flacco and company have won plenty of playoff games with their backs against the wall before in the past. They’d love nothing more than to ruin their biggest rivals season in their building.
Bengals 20 Colts (-7.5) 28: One thing that has not been lost leading up to this game is comparing the two quarterbacks in big game situations. Counting this game, Andy Dalton has led the Bengals to the playoffs four years in a row. However, he has yet to win a postseason game and has struggled tremendously in those games. Andrew Luck on the other hand is going to be the next elite quarterback and has already shown the tendency to come up huge in the postseason.
So why do the Bengals have a chance in this game? Because they have a favorable matchup when the ball is out of Dalton’s hands. Rookie running back Jeremy Hill has been fantastic of late and the Bengals will get him the ball early and often. The Colts run defense has allowed 4.3 yards a carry and it is unlikely they will be able to keep Hill down all game.
If the Colts can jump out to an early lead however, it will be extremely tough for the Bengals to keep up. Dalton doesn’t really have the weapons around him (especially with A.J. Green’s concussion putting his status in jeopardy) or skillset to match Luck score for score.
Lions 24 Cowboys (-7.5) 28: Of all the games this weekend, this is one I like the most as a potential upset. The Cowboys are coming in extremely hot, but there are some factors that should be noted. Dallas has played much better on the road, the Lions have had success in recent years against them, and Calvin Johnson has put up some ridiculous performances when these two have played.
One of the most surprising things in the Lions game against the Packers last week was how easily Eddie Lacy and company racked up yardage. That has to worry the Lions as they are about to face the highly touted Cowboys offensive line and another very talented back in DeMarco Murray. To win this week, the Lions will need much better performances from the line and Matthew Stafford. Despite throwing three touchdowns, Stafford had extremely inaccurate stretches last week. He can’t afford to make mistakes in this one as the Cowboys are another offense that can capitalize.
While I like the Lions chances in this one, the Cowboys just have too much going for me to pick against them right now. Tony Romo has been extremely efficient, Dez Bryant is too much for anyone to handle and the improved defense should take advantage of any possible Stafford mistakes.
Aaron Resnick
The Field Goal Post 