Given all the unknowns of who would play and for how long, week 18 wasn’t a bad one prediction wise. It ended up being an entertaining day of football, but now is when the real fun starts. This year we get the first “Super” wild card weekend as we have six games spanning across three days. With other sports having best-of series, there is really no professional American sports postseason like the NFL. The “win or go home” element makes every play that more meaningful, and in that day it doesn’t matter how good you’ve been the past four months. If you don’t bring your best game, odds are you’re going home. With that said, let’s get into covering this exciting slate of games.
Last week: 10-6, Season: 177-95
Last week against the spread: 8-8, Season: 144-128
Raiders 20 Bengals (-6.5) 26: Derek Carr and interim head coach Rich Basaccia deserve some type of award for everything they’ve overcome this season. As I’ve said before, many teams with the adversity the Raiders faced would have folded. This group finished 7-5 and clinched a playoff spot. Now with that said, the way in which the Raiders have won does scare me. Of those seven wins, three were on walk-off field goals and they haven’t had a double digit win since the week before Halloween. One of the games in that 12 game stretch includes the Bengals going into their building and winning by 19. The Bengals that day did a great job of controlling time of possession, limiting penalties and an effective running game. That Raiders run defense is still a liability, and Joe Burrow with his array of weapons has continued to rise to the occasion in big games. The Raiders ability to rush the passer sending just four and preventing Burrow from picking apart blitzes should help. While I feel this game should be a close one, the Bengals ability to either control tempo or put up points quickly looks like it could be too much for even this Raiders team to overcome.
Patriots 16 Bills (-4.5) 24: These teams have played twice before, but what do we make of those games? The first game in Buffalo with powerful winds and rain allowed the Patriots to pullout an upset without any threat of a passing game. With better conditions in New England, the Patriots had few answers for Josh Allen’s ability in and out of the pocket as the Bills put up 33 points in a winning effort. We’ll again have frigid temperatures as it’s likely to be around eight degrees throughout the game but without the winds/rain. The key to this one is if the Patriots can control the game on the ground as this current group isn’t one built to overcome early 10 to 14 point deficits. I’m assuming the Bills can generate some early offense here and they’ll be my pick. Though I certainly wouldn’t question someone for betting that a team can’t beat Bill Belichick two out of three times.
Eagles 17 Buccaneers (-8.5) 30: Tom Brady has had troubles with the NFC East in the playoffs, but on paper this game appears pretty lopsided by playoff standards. In the Eagles stretch where they went 6-1, they did a fantastic job of moving the ball on the ground. The Buccaneers figure to counter with one of the premier run defenses in the league. During that 6-1 stretch, the quarterbacks the Eagles beat were as follows: Teddy Bridgewater, Trevor Siemian, Zach Wilson, Garrett Gilbert, Mike Glennon, and Taylor Heinicke. Not exactly murderers row, and now you face the most accomplished quarterback in league history. In a year where that was expected to be a rebuild, this was an impressive year for the Eagles. I’m just not convinced they have enough on either side of the ball to pullout a road win here.
49ers 26 Cowboys (-3.5) 28: This might be the most compelling playoff matchup of the weekend as I could see either team winning and making noise in the NFC. Both teams have strong offensive lines and pass rushes which always gives a team a chance. Similar to the Patriots today, this game for the 49ers could come down to if they establish the tempo early. We’ve seen San Francisco go on long drives that take up half of a quarter, and they might need one or two of those. On top of that, we know the Cowboys secondary can be susceptible to allowing big plays and the after the catch ability of the 49ers pass catchers could make that possible. My biggest question in this one ultimately comes down to Jimmy Garoppolo. If he doesn’t turn the ball over and the Niners are controlling the game, he should be fine. However if Dak Prescott and company get out to a double digit lead is he the guy to lead a comeback against the Cowboy pass rush? I have more faith in Prescott which is why I ultimately took the Cowboys, but could see this going either way.
Steelers 14 Chiefs (-12.5) 28: The Jaguars winning on Sunday didn’t cost them the number one pick in April’s draft. However, it did result in the nation now being forced to watch this version of Ben Roethlisberger in a primetime playoff game. Roethlisberger has averaged just over four yards per pass attempt in his last three, and that’s simply not going to get it done here. It also doesn’t help that Najee Harris appeared to dislocate his elbow last week, though assuming he plays it could be tough to be effective. Depending on how the Steelers offense plays, Patrick Mahomes and company might have short fields to work with. On top of that the Steelers have really struggled against opposing run games, so with an improved offensive line Darrel Williams could have a huge day without Mahomes making a drastic impact. If this is Roethlisberger’s last game, Steelers fans will at least have a decades plus worth of memories to have instead of what we’re witnessing at the very end of what will be a hall of fame career.
Cardinals 23 Rams (-4.5) 27: The Cardinals and Rams have been fascinating to watch this year as depending on when you see them, both teams are capable of beating or losing to anyone. After the road teams won both matchups in the regular season, the rubber match now comes in a win or go home scenario. Matthew Stafford at one point was an MVP candidate, but has thrown seven interceptions in his last three games. You also might not have heard this before, but Stafford has never won a playoff game. Here is where I remind you that football is the ultimate team game, and while Stafford is the best Lions quarterback those under 75 have ever seen, he’s a quarterback and not a miracle worker or Devine being. These are the Lions we’re talking about here. Now, he gets a matchup against a Cardinals secondary he shredded a month ago and will be missing both perimeter corners. When locked in, few quarterbacks can get into a zone like Stafford, and this would the perfect stage to do it.
Kyler Murray and company have had a very impressive year, the question is if the Rams put up points early do the Cardinals have the weapons to comeback through the air. Remember, DeAndre Hopkins is out, so Murray is left heavily relying on Christian Kirk and A.J. Green. Kirk and Green both have big performances against the Rams this year, but the emergence of another threat would be necessary if they hope to pullout the road win.
Aaron Resnick
The Field Goal Post 