Divisional Round Predictions

Last week’s “Super” Wildcard weekend was kind to my predictions but not the average viewer. Two of the six games last weekend were decided by seven or less and came down to the final seconds. That’s everything we love to see in the playoffs. The other four games were over by halftime. As a whole, it probably shows there were a lot of average teams this year that won the winnable games on their schedule, then won a few others.

Now we have true contenders remaining. In the NFC, three of the four teams remaining played in the divisional round last year. The 49ers were decimated by injuries in 2020, but likely would have been in the mix based on their strong roster. In the AFC, we have a rematch of the conference title game tomorrow, a Titans team with a strong postseason record the past few years, and an upstart Bengals team coming off the franchises first postseason win in 30+ years. Needless to say, it should be a fun weekend of football. *Disclaimer: the conference title matchups I predicted in the preseason will both be occurring this weekend. As a result, I will be riding with those initial predictions.*

Wild card weekend results:

Straight up: 5-1

Against the spread: 4-2

Bengals 23 Titans (-3.5) 27: This game isn’t the sexiest on the slate, but it has the makings to be a lot of fun. The Bengals’ young offensive nucleus led by Joe Burrow has taken the NFL by storm recently and the Titans can be vulnerable to allowing big plays in the passing game. As a result we could see big games from Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins or both. My biggest question will be which team I trust more in the trenches. Among remaining playoff teams, the Titans have been the stingiest against the run. On the other hand, the Bengals did just allow 127 total yards to Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry (though there could be some rust) will be without a snap count. Ryan Tannehill has struggled against the Cover 2 looks which the Bengals use frequently compared to other coverages, so that’s worth looking into. However with A.J. Brown and a (for now) healthy Julio Jones, I think the Titans should be able to do enough offensively and get just enough stops to pull it out.

49ers 17 Packers (-6.5) 21: As a collective whole, the 49ers are a team you’d hate to play in the postseason. They’re physical, run the ball well, and are strong along both the offensive and defensive lines. The essential question to me will be which team controls the game flow. If Aaron Rodgers and company can get out to a early 10-13 point lead, it would force Jimmy Garoppolo and the offense to get away from running early and often like they’d want. Despite the impressive 49ers defense, Rodgers should have success throwing against a young secondary, so like it often does in the postseason, this game will come down to how his defense performs. I wouldn’t be stunned if the 49ers won outright, so I’m expecting a close one.

Rams 24 Buccaneers (-3.5) 28: This was my predicted NFC title game, so I’m going to roll with it. Matthew Stafford finally got that elusive first playoff win executing very well when called upon. The bad news for the Rams is the Buccaneers won’t certainly look as shell-shocked as the Cardinals did on the big stage. On top of that, the Buccaneers secondary will be much healthier than it was when these teams faced off earlier in the season. Tom Brady has injuries along the offensive line, and notable receivers out so what should we expect? His death by a thousand paper cuts approached that worked for years of course. If Leonard Fournette can play, he should see a big role in the passing and receiving game but Gio Bernard could emerge as an unsung hero otherwise. The Rams along with Andrew Whitworth being out also have the unfortune of going cross country on a short week (Monday night playoff football everyone!) so that along with facing a healthier Buccaneer defense are also going against them here.

Bills 26 Chiefs (-2.5) 23: Again, this was my predicted AFC title result, so while it’s alive I’m going to pick it. The Bills did dominate this matchup in week five earlier this year, but I don’t see that happening again. This should be a much closer battle as the Chiefs have made strides on defense, while Patrick Mahomes has also been less reckless with the ball. One thing that could help the Bills in this one is their emerging running game with Devin Singletary. The Chiefs have shown some vulnerability on the ground, and “Motor” has thrived in recent weeks with a larger workload. Mahomes and the offense will need another big performance from Travis Kelce to win this week. He has a daunting matchup though, as Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are likely the league’s best safety duo. Ultimately, the star tight end’s production in this one could determine the outcome. This game is a true tossup for me, and while I’m somewhat inclined to believe in the Chiefs until proven otherwise, I have to side with my preseason AFC champion for the time being.